The worst possible runoff election scenario is a 100% guaranteed Cappleman reelection win
46th Ward incumbent Alderman Cappleman knows everything I have to say here is true. He may be a horrible person and alderman, but he has the people and money to poll and predict with accuracy various election outcomes. He understands just who lives in the 46th Ward today, who votes, how they vote and how prepared challenging campaigns are to ultimately win a runoff election with 50% +1 votes. Some of his challengers also have this same type of information, perhaps not all of them.
Understand that Cappleman is the only candidate polling within the realms of possibility to win outright the February 26, 2019 election. He can be unseated but if we don’t focus on a challenger that can win a runoff and vote our tushies off, Cappleman is reelected in the 1st round.
Most voters view general and runoff elections from the current point and move forward in time. Let’s go backwards from the end point instead, and focus on the runoff election should there be one, with no wishing on a star, no thoughts and prayers, just facts.
I’m not even going to waste any of our time discussing a runoff election with Justin Kreindler or Jon-Robert McDowell. It is impossible, 100% impossible, it will never happen in this year’s elections. This is math folks, 100% and impossible have unchangeable meanings.
It is very simple, if there is a runoff, Cappleman will be in the runoff with one of the women challengers. Great news, but hold on…
1st up, Angela Clay. Just pretend Angela Clay somehow got to the runoff election. I’m being quick because I know very few read long scholarly blog posts. Clay vs. Cappleman is a 100% guaranteed Cappleman win. It could be that 4 years from now, Angela will have spent a year before the election organizing, fundraising and building a coalition of support that is wide enough to win over half the 46th Ward’s votes, but not in today’s 3 months. 2019 is not going to happen for her, but she could guarantee a Cappleman reelection. I’m left of progressive, I wish this wasn’t true, but it is true. If you want to make an idealistic vote that will reelect Cappleman in the runoff, vote for Angela Clay.
As for the February 26, 2019 election and Angela, every non-Cappleman vote propels us closer to a runoff, so it is a very good thing to vote for Angela, as long as it’s not Angela that faces Cappleman in the runoff.
2nd and 3rd up, Marianne Lalonde and Erika Wozniak Francis. Only Marianne Lalonde and Erika Wozniak Francis have started their campaigns early enough to do the groundwork, fundraising, coalition building and can appeal to a wide enough swath of the 46th Ward to 50% +1 Cappleman in the April 2019 runoff election.
There isn’t going to be a challenger vs. challenger runoff. I repeat Cappleman will be in the runoff if he doesn’t outright win the February 26, 2019 election.
So, if you really want Cappleman gone, and you want some choice, pick Marianne Lalonde or Erika Wozniak Francis. This is reality folks, my heart goes out to all. I obviously picked Marianne Lalonde and believe 100% she is by far the best possible candidate. If Erika should end up in the runoff instead, I will vote wholeheartedly for her. I’ll vote for Angela Clay just as wholeheartedly in a runoff too.
It’s beyond personal, I’ve watched enough people suffer for years under the inequity and corruption of Alderman Cappleman. If Cappleman wins, the 46th Ward loses. If Cappleman wins, real people will hurt. It’s way beyond some petty Facebook drama folks, think about it.
What you believe, what you hope for, what someone told you, how nice these candidates are, how good their platforms might be, some half-false ethical roadblock for you or whatever, will change none of what I have said here.
All I ask is: If you are not voting for Marianne Lalonde or Erika Wozniak Francis, be honest with yourself that you like the candidate you are voting for or something about them so much you are willing to reelect Cappleman.
So there you go, if you can’t part the seas of mathematics like Moses, you need a new plan. 100%, 50%+1, zero, impossible, possible, reality, these are terms that defy redefinition.
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